The annual “State of the Climate” report drew on the findings more than 300 climate scientists in 48 countries who measured 10 separate planetwide features, including air and sea temperatures, humidity, Arctic sea ice, glaciers, and spring snow cover in the Northern hemisphere.

“The records come from many institutions worldwide,” Dr. Jane Lubchenco, the agency’s administrator, said in a statement. “They use data collected from diverse sources, including satellites, weather balloons, weather stations, ships, buoys and field surveys. These independently produced lines of evidence all point to the same conclusion: our planet is warming.”

The findings do not include data from 2010, which is on pace to exceed the highest annual average global temperature ever recorded, NOAA said. This summer’s weather has been defined by extreme heat events in the eastern United States, Europe, Russia, China, Japan and the Middle East.

The past decade was the hottest recorded, part of an unequivocal pattern of warming dating back 50 years, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration report declared on Wednesday.

Experts say that sea ice is melting, heavy rainfall is intensifying and heat waves are more common, among other indicators.

According to the report, each decade since the 1980s has been progressively warmer than the last, with an average warming of about one-fifth of a degree Fahrenheit per decade.

“The temperature increase of one degree Fahrenheit over the past 50 years may seem small, but it has already altered our planet,” said Deke Arndt, co-editor of the report and chief of the Climate Monitoring Branch of NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center. “Glaciers and sea ice are melting, heavy rainfall is intensifying and heat waves are more common.”

The report also suggests that more than 90 percent of the warming over the past 50 years may have gone into the oceans.

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Many of the world’s largest developed nations experienced a drop in emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in 2009.  China and India, however, saw their own domestic emissions levels rise significantly.  Has this growth in effect “canceled out” the reductions made in developed nations?  According to the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the answer is yes.

Global emissions levels remained relatively unchanged in 2009 largely because of Chinese and Indian contributions, despite predictions from groups such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) which thought the global economic meltdown and decrease in manufacturing would assuredly reduce emissions worldwide.

The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency notes that carbon dioxide emissions per person in China are now 6.1 tons, roughly equal to France which clocked in at 6.0 tons in 2009.  This figure represents a major increase for China, which in 1990 emitted only 2.2 tons per capita.    Interestingly, this increase comes Chinese wind and solar energy capacity has doubled for the fifth year in a row.

Because of its use of nuclear energy, French emissions are actually on the lower end of the scale in comparison to other developed nations.  Per capita emissions in other EU member nations were 7.9 tons in 2009, down from 9.1 tons in 1990, while per capita emissions in the United Sates fell to 17.2 tons in 2009, decreasing from 19.5 tons in 1990.

All in all, the Dutch agency now reports that 53% of 2009 global emissions came from developing nations, with 44% coming from the developed world.  International air and sea transportation accounts for the remaining 3%.

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According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, global emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions decreased for the first time since 1998, dropping 1.1% to 31.13 billion tons after 2008′s peak of 31.55 billion tons.

However, despite this overall reduction, China’s greenhouse gas emissions have grown sharply as the nation rapidly industrializes and continues to construct new coal-fired power plants.  China is now the world’s leading emitter, having overtaken the United States in 2008.  This past year, China ‘s fossil fuel combustion released 7.5 billion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere.

China is not the only developing nation whose emissions have grown sharply.  India also saw an increase of 7%, and it has now overtaken Russia as the world’s third largest emitter.  In aggregate, the developing world now accounts for half of all global emissions.

United States emissions, on the other hand, fell by 6.5% to 5.9 billion tons in 2009, the lowest level since 1995.  However, “although the share of emerging markets is growing, the industrialized countries remain the preponderant source of historical greenhouse gases,” reminds Nick Robins, head of HSBC’s Climate Change Center of Excellence.

The United States and China, as well as the world’s other top emitters, now find themselves under tremendous pressure to either extend the Kyoto Protocol or formulate a successor to the climate treaty, which is set to expire in 2012.  Nations are also attempting to come up with domestic emissions reductions plans of their own.  “In terms of future emissions targets, China is ahead of the U.S. because it has set itself commitments to reduce carbon intensity, while the U.S. is struggling to get climate legislation through Congress,” remarks Robins.

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The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is urging G20 nations to end subsidies for fossil fuels and to follow through with the pledge made after last year’s gathering in Toronto to phase out these massive subsidies over the near- to medium- term.

OECD chief  Angel Gurría calls these subsidies, which by some estimates may be as much as $557 billion a year in developing nations and over $100 billion in the industrialized world, a “wasteful use of scarce budget resources.”  There is a contradiction, he says, because”many governments are giving subsidies to fossil fuel production and consumption that encourage greenhouse gas emissions, at the same time they are spending on projects to promote clean energy.”

According to some estimates, eliminating fossil fuel subsidies may help to reduce total global greenhouse emissions by 10% from their expected 2050 levels.  This would greatly assist  G20 nations with other policy initiatives to mitigate the effects of global warming.

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The BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico – which has become the largest environmental disaster in United States history – has also re-ignited public awareness of the climate and energy bill awaiting approval in the Senate.

President Obama has vowed to acquire all the remaining votes needed to pass this legislation, saying in the wake of this catastrophe, the United States must re-address its energy policies.

“If we refuse to take into account the full cost of our fossil fuel addiction – if we don’t factor in the environmental costs and national security costs and true economic costs – we will have missed our best change to seize a clean energy future,” said the President.  He also noted that America “consumes more than 20% of the world’s oil, but has less than 2% of the world’s oil reserves.”

Speaking of the bill, Mr. Obama says “the votes may not be there right now, but I intend to find them in the coming months.”

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Deforestation is a worldwide problem which contributes mightily to global greenhouse emissions.  It is estimated that one-fifth of all carbon dioxide emissions result from chopping down forestland, especially in tropical zones.

Land preservationists and climate change advocates want to end this environmentally harmful practice, saying doing so will benefit not only the atmosphere, but the U.S. farming economy.

A recent study by the National Farmers Union and Avoided Deforestation Partners estimates if global deforestation were stopped, the U.S. agricultural sector could boost its revenues from $190 billion to $270 billion through 2030.

U.S. crops  have long been undercut by unfairly cheap commodities harvested on “slash-and-burn” cleared land.  Stemming this practice would slow the spread of these artificially cheap commodities into the global marketplace.  The report says U.S. timber, soybean, oilseed and beef industries stand to enjoy particular gains.

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According to an Ernst & Young global survey of 300 corporate executives, 70% of global firms with revenues of $1 billion or more say they will be increasing spending on climate change initiatives over the next two years.

Energy efficiency investments emerged as a major theme from the survey results.   More than 82% of respondents expected to make energy efficiency investments over the next year, and 92% of those polled said energy costs would be high on the list of priorities over that time period.

Melanie Steiner of Ernst & Young said these results show that despite uncertainty over climate change, “companies are really taking action anyway, because they’re seeing that this is a business issue and an opportunity to generate new revenue.”

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Arguing that the public discourse surrounding climate change has deteriorated, a group of 14 “eclectic” academics from Europe, North American and Japan have come together with a host of new ideas, namely shifting global focus away from carbon dioxide mitigation and towards more “quick fix” climate solutions.

The “Hartwell Paper” urges the world to look beyond the UN climate negotiating platform, beyond the disappointing outcome of Copenhagen, and beyond the so-called “ClimateGate” scandal to see the true complexities, and importance, of the issues at hand.  ”Climate change has been represented as a conventional environmental ‘problem’ that is capable of being ‘solved,’” said Mike Hulme, an author of the report.  ”It is neither of these.  Yet this framing has locked the world into a rigid agenda that brought us to the dead end of Kyoto, with no evidence of any discernible acceleration of decarbonization whatsoever.”

Hulme and his fellow authors believe the best way to move forward is by concentrating on ways to curb pollution from “black carbon” – a warming agent which is emitted from the incomplete burning of fossil fuels mainly in diesel engines and wood stoves.  This substance, the scientists say, may be the second most significant human-contributed warming agent after carbon dioxide.

The authors concede that carbon dioxide emissions will have to be reined in if long term warming is to be mitigated.  To do so, they advocate an agreement among developed countries to contribute 0.7% of GDP to support low-carbon technology development and deployment in developing nations, where a carbon tax would be instituted.

This report, however, has been harshly criticized by many other climate scientists who believe it is a mistake to shift global attention away from carbon dioxide.  ”The paper’s focus away from CO2 is misguided, short-sighted and probably wrong,” remarked Bill Hare from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.

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Grappling with skyrocketing energy demand, high pollution levels and international pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, reports indicate China may consider instituting taxes on carbon or other resources to boost support for low-carbon energy technologies.

Experts from the Energy Research Institute under the National Development and Reform Commission – a Cabinet department focused on mid- and long- term domestic development – say if it is deemed beneficial, a carbon tax is likely to be levied during the 12th Five-year plan (2011-2015).

Jian Kejun, a senior researcher with the Institute, reaffirmed China’s commitment to reducing its carbon intensity 40-45% by 2020 in recent remarks to the newpaper China Daily.  To reach this target, the government is prepared to pursue “tougher measures” over the next five years, including subsidies and incentives for low-carbon technologies in addition to a potential tax.

Increasing support for scientific research is another top priority in China.  Right now, China’s investment in scientific clean energy research is only one-sixth that of the United States.  However by 2025, China’s investment in this area may overtake that of the United States.  ”If this comes true,” Jing said, “we can start to dream of becoming a low-carbon technology leader in the world.”

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Carbon dioxide emissions are changing the the chemistry of the world’s oceans at an “unprecedented rate and magnitude.”  The current rate of change “exceeds any known to have occurred for at least the past hundreds of thousands of years,” says the National Research Council in a recent report.

Oceans are one of the world’s largest “carbon sinks,” storing about one-third of all CO2 emissions.  However, when CO2 is stored in the ocean, it reacts with seawater to form carbonic acid.  Unless emissions of carbon dioxide are limited, scientists warn that the ocean will grow more and more acidic.  Coral reefs and marine life are especially sensitive to the pH balance of the ocean, and increased acidification could have catastrophic consequences, such as the creation of ocean “dead zones” devoid of sea life.

The National Research Council’s data shows ocean acidity has increased 0.1 points (out of a 14 point pH scale).  This data indicates that ocean chemistry has changed more since the Industrial Revolution than at any other point over the last 800,000 years.

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Recent estimates expect the global automobile fleet to double over the next 20 years – growing from 800m today to over 1.6bn in 2030.  This massive growth is occurring as developing powers like China and India increase levels of individual car ownership.  However, the extra emissions resulting from millions upon millions more vehicles on the world’s roadways could be dramatic, and adversely affect global efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

The European Commission has launched a “green transport” initiative in an effort to reach their emissions reductions goals.  By 2050, the EU is aiming for an 80 to 95% decrease in transport-related emissions.  The Commission believes widespread deployment of green transportation options, such as electric vehicles, public transportation and low-carbon and sustainable fuels will go a long way to achieving this goal.

The initiative calls for, among other things, Europe-wide standards for electric vehicle charging by 2011, continued research into low-carbon and energy efficient methods of transportation, financial incentives to encourage consumers and will work with the European Investment Bank to catalyze funding for green vehicle infrastructure and services.

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As the United States Senate prepares to re-visit climate change legislation, the special envoy to the Chinese president voiced grave concern over the effects un-mitigated climate change could have on China’s economy.

“The scale of economic destruction would be equivalent to that of the two world wars and the Great Depression combined” if global temperatures rise by 3°C to 4°C, Xie Zhenhua wrote recently in the China Economic Herald.  ”Human beings cannot afford such disasters.”

In now appears that the group of BASIC countries (Brazil, South Africa, India and China) are becoming more amenable to the terms of the Kyoto Protocol, which they had previously resisted heartedly.  This resistance was a major reason why the United States never ratified the treaty, which is set to expire in 2012.  BASIC environment ministers will meet in South Africa later this month to incorporate elements of the Copenhagen Accord, the non-binding agreement formulated at the Copenhagen climate talks last December, can be worked into a broader global pact to succeed the Kyoto Protocol.

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Climate change could spark more ”hazardous” geological events such as volcanoes, earthquakes and landslides, scientists have warned

In papers published by the Royal Society, researchers warned that melting ice, sea level rises and even increasingly heavy storms and rainfall – predicted consequences of rising temperatures – could affect the Earth’s crust.

Even small changes in the environment could trigger activity such as earthquakes and tsunamis

And some evidence suggests the consequences of climate change were already having an impact on geological activity in places such as Alaska, researchers writing in the journal the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A said.

Bill McGuire, of the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre at University College London, and the author of a review in the journal of research in the area, said warming temperatures melted ice from ice sheets and glaciers and increased the amount of water in the oceans.

As the land ”rebounds” back up once the weight of the ice has been removed – which could be by as much as a kilometre in places such as Greenland and Antarctica – then if, in the worst case scenario, all the ice were to melt – it could trigger earthquakes.

The increase in seismic activity could, in turn, cause underwater landslides that spark tsunamis.

A potential additional risk is from ”ice-quakes” generated when the ice sheets break up, causing tsunamis which could threaten places such as New Zealand, Newfoundland in Canada and Chile.

The reduction in the ice could also stimulate volcanic eruptions, according to the research.

And the greater weight of the water in the oceans where sea level has risen as ice melts can ”bend” the Earth’s crust. This produces magma and causes volcanic and seismic activity in coastal or island areas – where the majority of 550 volcanoes whose eruptions have been historically documented are found.

Increased volcanic activity could cause more landslides, and have impacts well beyond the area where the volcano is situated – for example by releasing sulphur clouds into the atmosphere or by affecting air travel.

Prof McGuire said the changes could occur in the coming decades or over centuries, rather than thousands of years, depending on factors such as how quickly sea levels rose.

And he warned: ”The rise you may need may be much smaller than we expect. Looking ahead at climate change, we may not need massive changes.

”One of the worries is that tiny environmental changes could have these effects.”

His review said there was ”mounting evidence” of seismic, volcanic and landslide activity being triggered or affected by small changes in the environment – even specific weather events such as typhoons or torrential rain.

Prof McGuire said that in Taiwan the lower air pressure generated by typhoons was enough to ”unload” the crust by a small amount and trigger earthquakes.

Other impacts of rising temperatures include glacial lakes bursting out through rock dams and causing flash flooding in mountain regions such as the Himalayas, as well as rock, ice and landslides as permafrost melts.

And he said there may be ”tipping points” in the geological systems, where the crust reaches a threshold that causes a step-change in the frequency of such events – but it was not clear where those thresholds might lie.

At times in the past climate change has been seen to have links with enhanced levels of potentially hazardous geological activity – for example after the end of the last ice age.

But they have not been fully considered as potential impacts of the rapid changes in the climate expected in the future and there was a great deal of uncertainty about what might happen in coming years.

Prof McGuire called for a programme of research focusing on the potential geological hazards that global warming could bring, with the leading body on global warming, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), addressing the issue directly in its future assessments.

After three days of negotiations between 194 countries, the UN’s latest round of climate talks in Bonn, Germany drew to a close with plans for further negotiations in Cancún, Mexico this December.  Two additional negotiating sessions will be added during the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which takes place from May 31st to June 11th.

Yvo de Boer, the outgoing executive secretary of the UNFCCC, said “The UN Climate Change Conference in Cancún must do what Copenhagen did not achieve: It must finalize a functioning architecture for implementation that launches global climate action, across the board, especially in developing nations.”

Mr. de Boer explained that certain issues in particular demand global attention, namely mitigation targets and action, an adaptation package, new technology mechanism, financial arrangements, deforestation issues as well as a capacity-building framework.

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European Union countries aim to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide by 80% below 1990 levels by 2050; keeping within scientific recommendations to limit global temperature increases to 2°C.  Major new investment will be needed to achieve cuts on this scale, specifically in renewable power projects and electricity infrastructure upgrades.

However, despite these costs, a new report from three leading consulting firms predicts that the cost of electricity in Europe in 2050 would be no higher than it would under a “business as usual” plan with no carbon-reduction action taken.

The study, jointly published by McKinsey, European Climate Foundation and E3G, highlighted the following 3 points:

- Renewable power infrastructure is capital-intensive at the onset, yet over time costs less to run than do traditional power plants.

- Replacing outdated coal-fired power plants with new ones is actually more expensive that substituting wind or solar farms instead

- Smart grid investment continent-wide will provide major savings in energy efficiency, and help improve the reliability (and price) of renewables.

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Population expansion is putting severe strain on the world’s food resources.

According to Joachin von Braun, the former director general of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), global population is predicted to reach over 9 billion people by 2050, up from today’s current total of 6.3 billion.  To keep up with the resulting increased demand, agricultural production worldwide will need to grow by 70% above today’s levels.

However, investment in agricultural research has declined over the past decades, making it more difficult to solve this looming production problem.  The unpredictable effects of climate change will likely also complicate global efforts.  ”We have realized the problem of food security is not only a technical, economic, ethical problem.  It’s a problem of peace and security in the world,” remarked von Braun, who urged for increased subsidies for under-privileged farmers in vulnerable countries, and more funding for agricultural research.

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The World Bank needs to do more about global water issues, especially in developing nations, says a new report from the Independent Evaluation Group (IEG), the internal watchdog of the World Bank.

Global water scarcity is on the rise, with 700 million people in 43 countries facing water stress.  However, the IEG says there was “no apparent correlation between a country’s water stress and bank lending for water to that country.”  Although close to one third of all World Bank projects since 1997 have involved water, the IEG says much more needs to be done, specifically related to sanitation and water pollution issues, restoring maligned environments and monitoring important water-related data.   In response, the World Bank says it will focus on ways to close the water resource gap in vulnerable countries.

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China and India have formally agreed to ratify the Copenhagen Accord, the global climate agreement which stemmed from last year’s U.N. climate change convention in Copenhagen.

Over 100 countries have already approved the Accord, which aims to limit the increase in global temperatures to no more than 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, above pre-industrial levels.  The Accord also calls for spending on the scale of $100 billion a year to assist emerging countries in making adaptations to climate change.

China and India are two of the world’s fastest growing economies, and in recent years their rates of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions have skyrocketed.  By joining the Accord, China and India have added legitimacy to the treaty and have demonstrated to the rest of the world that they are serious about addressing these important climate issues.

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Climate change investments hold both immediate and long-term potential for growth, says Deutsche Bank Climate Change Advisors in a new report.

Kevin Parker, DB’s Global Head of Asset Management, had this to say about this growing investment space:

“The shift to a low-carbon economy to mitigate global warming will require the creation of new technologies, industries and jobs on a massive scale.  The absolute imperative to prevent climate change is therefore also, I believe, the economic and investment opportunity of a lifetime.”

“…  In other words, climate change is not merely an investment sector that may hold future promise; it is a sector that has already delivered and is continuing to deliver.  That is is why we believe institutional investors should be shifting their asset allocation towards climate change.  For fidiuciary reason, if for no other, they should be seeking out this attractive source of alpha.”

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