The EU has reached a unanimous decision to create a central trading platform to manage sales of the majority of EU carbon permits which are traded through the bloc’s Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS).

The central trading platform will commence during the 2013 stage of the ETS, but individual nations will also have the freedom to opt-out and hold their own auctions.  The number of permits to be issued and dates of auction have yet to be determined.

During the first phase of the ETS trading scheme, most permits were distributed to industries for free.  However as phase 3 begins, the majority of emissions permits will be sold to companies through auctions.  This includes the aviation sector, which will be required to purchase 15% of their permits at auction when it joins the ETS in 2012.

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Many of the world’s largest developed nations experienced a drop in emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in 2009.  China and India, however, saw their own domestic emissions levels rise significantly.  Has this growth in effect “canceled out” the reductions made in developed nations?  According to the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the answer is yes.

Global emissions levels remained relatively unchanged in 2009 largely because of Chinese and Indian contributions, despite predictions from groups such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) which thought the global economic meltdown and decrease in manufacturing would assuredly reduce emissions worldwide.

The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency notes that carbon dioxide emissions per person in China are now 6.1 tons, roughly equal to France which clocked in at 6.0 tons in 2009.  This figure represents a major increase for China, which in 1990 emitted only 2.2 tons per capita.    Interestingly, this increase comes Chinese wind and solar energy capacity has doubled for the fifth year in a row.

Because of its use of nuclear energy, French emissions are actually on the lower end of the scale in comparison to other developed nations.  Per capita emissions in other EU member nations were 7.9 tons in 2009, down from 9.1 tons in 1990, while per capita emissions in the United Sates fell to 17.2 tons in 2009, decreasing from 19.5 tons in 1990.

All in all, the Dutch agency now reports that 53% of 2009 global emissions came from developing nations, with 44% coming from the developed world.  International air and sea transportation accounts for the remaining 3%.

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Data from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy shows global energy consumption fell by 1.1% last year, with oil and and natural gas usage down across the board.

Global coal use, however, has remained steady.  In fact, as a percentage of world primary energy usage, coal has risen to levels not seen since 1971.

On the other hand, oil’s percentage of global energy usage has fallen consistently over the past decade; from 39.00% in 1999 down to 34.77% in 2009.

As oil production becomes more difficult and expensive, coal is increasingly being employed as a source of transportation fuels.  Nations like South Africa and China have been expanding their coal-to-liquid (CTL) programs, and China reportedly has six major CTL projects under development.

CTL processes may present an alternative way to generate liquid fuel, but it comes at a price.  CTL produces nearly double the greenhouse gas emissions of conventional fuel production from oil, and many climate and environmental advocates worry that if CTL programs become more widespread the world would experience increased emissions levels.

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According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, global emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions decreased for the first time since 1998, dropping 1.1% to 31.13 billion tons after 2008′s peak of 31.55 billion tons.

However, despite this overall reduction, China’s greenhouse gas emissions have grown sharply as the nation rapidly industrializes and continues to construct new coal-fired power plants.  China is now the world’s leading emitter, having overtaken the United States in 2008.  This past year, China ‘s fossil fuel combustion released 7.5 billion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere.

China is not the only developing nation whose emissions have grown sharply.  India also saw an increase of 7%, and it has now overtaken Russia as the world’s third largest emitter.  In aggregate, the developing world now accounts for half of all global emissions.

United States emissions, on the other hand, fell by 6.5% to 5.9 billion tons in 2009, the lowest level since 1995.  However, “although the share of emerging markets is growing, the industrialized countries remain the preponderant source of historical greenhouse gases,” reminds Nick Robins, head of HSBC’s Climate Change Center of Excellence.

The United States and China, as well as the world’s other top emitters, now find themselves under tremendous pressure to either extend the Kyoto Protocol or formulate a successor to the climate treaty, which is set to expire in 2012.  Nations are also attempting to come up with domestic emissions reductions plans of their own.  “In terms of future emissions targets, China is ahead of the U.S. because it has set itself commitments to reduce carbon intensity, while the U.S. is struggling to get climate legislation through Congress,” remarks Robins.

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The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is urging G20 nations to end subsidies for fossil fuels and to follow through with the pledge made after last year’s gathering in Toronto to phase out these massive subsidies over the near- to medium- term.

OECD chief  Angel Gurría calls these subsidies, which by some estimates may be as much as $557 billion a year in developing nations and over $100 billion in the industrialized world, a “wasteful use of scarce budget resources.”  There is a contradiction, he says, because”many governments are giving subsidies to fossil fuel production and consumption that encourage greenhouse gas emissions, at the same time they are spending on projects to promote clean energy.”

According to some estimates, eliminating fossil fuel subsidies may help to reduce total global greenhouse emissions by 10% from their expected 2050 levels.  This would greatly assist  G20 nations with other policy initiatives to mitigate the effects of global warming.

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Norway and Indonesia have signed a $1 billion agreement designed to curb rapid deforestation in vulnerable forests and peatlands.  In return for Norway’s significant investment, Indonesia will impose a 2 year moratorium on all new concessions of peat and natural forest lands for clearing.

Part of Norway’s $1 billion investment will go towards creating and monitoring new projects under the U.N.-baked forest conservation scheme, called Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD).  The Indonesia-based Center for International Forestry Research said this new deal could be “a game-changer in the drive to make REDD a reality.”

Norway and Indonesia’s landmark deal was supported by another notable investor – billionaire George Soros.  In advance of the deal-signing, Soros said he would personally guarantee $50 million to help slow global deforestation, which he believes is of the utmost importance in the struggle to reduce emissions.  ”If you can stop the eradication of the forest before it happens, its much easier than to reclaim the degraded land.  That is why I think quick action is so important.”

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Deforestation is a worldwide problem which contributes mightily to global greenhouse emissions.  It is estimated that one-fifth of all carbon dioxide emissions result from chopping down forestland, especially in tropical zones.

Land preservationists and climate change advocates want to end this environmentally harmful practice, saying doing so will benefit not only the atmosphere, but the U.S. farming economy.

A recent study by the National Farmers Union and Avoided Deforestation Partners estimates if global deforestation were stopped, the U.S. agricultural sector could boost its revenues from $190 billion to $270 billion through 2030.

U.S. crops  have long been undercut by unfairly cheap commodities harvested on “slash-and-burn” cleared land.  Stemming this practice would slow the spread of these artificially cheap commodities into the global marketplace.  The report says U.S. timber, soybean, oilseed and beef industries stand to enjoy particular gains.

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Arguing that the public discourse surrounding climate change has deteriorated, a group of 14 “eclectic” academics from Europe, North American and Japan have come together with a host of new ideas, namely shifting global focus away from carbon dioxide mitigation and towards more “quick fix” climate solutions.

The “Hartwell Paper” urges the world to look beyond the UN climate negotiating platform, beyond the disappointing outcome of Copenhagen, and beyond the so-called “ClimateGate” scandal to see the true complexities, and importance, of the issues at hand.  ”Climate change has been represented as a conventional environmental ‘problem’ that is capable of being ‘solved,’” said Mike Hulme, an author of the report.  ”It is neither of these.  Yet this framing has locked the world into a rigid agenda that brought us to the dead end of Kyoto, with no evidence of any discernible acceleration of decarbonization whatsoever.”

Hulme and his fellow authors believe the best way to move forward is by concentrating on ways to curb pollution from “black carbon” – a warming agent which is emitted from the incomplete burning of fossil fuels mainly in diesel engines and wood stoves.  This substance, the scientists say, may be the second most significant human-contributed warming agent after carbon dioxide.

The authors concede that carbon dioxide emissions will have to be reined in if long term warming is to be mitigated.  To do so, they advocate an agreement among developed countries to contribute 0.7% of GDP to support low-carbon technology development and deployment in developing nations, where a carbon tax would be instituted.

This report, however, has been harshly criticized by many other climate scientists who believe it is a mistake to shift global attention away from carbon dioxide.  ”The paper’s focus away from CO2 is misguided, short-sighted and probably wrong,” remarked Bill Hare from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.

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Grappling with skyrocketing energy demand, high pollution levels and international pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, reports indicate China may consider instituting taxes on carbon or other resources to boost support for low-carbon energy technologies.

Experts from the Energy Research Institute under the National Development and Reform Commission – a Cabinet department focused on mid- and long- term domestic development – say if it is deemed beneficial, a carbon tax is likely to be levied during the 12th Five-year plan (2011-2015).

Jian Kejun, a senior researcher with the Institute, reaffirmed China’s commitment to reducing its carbon intensity 40-45% by 2020 in recent remarks to the newpaper China Daily.  To reach this target, the government is prepared to pursue “tougher measures” over the next five years, including subsidies and incentives for low-carbon technologies in addition to a potential tax.

Increasing support for scientific research is another top priority in China.  Right now, China’s investment in scientific clean energy research is only one-sixth that of the United States.  However by 2025, China’s investment in this area may overtake that of the United States.  ”If this comes true,” Jing said, “we can start to dream of becoming a low-carbon technology leader in the world.”

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Carbon dioxide emissions are changing the the chemistry of the world’s oceans at an “unprecedented rate and magnitude.”  The current rate of change “exceeds any known to have occurred for at least the past hundreds of thousands of years,” says the National Research Council in a recent report.

Oceans are one of the world’s largest “carbon sinks,” storing about one-third of all CO2 emissions.  However, when CO2 is stored in the ocean, it reacts with seawater to form carbonic acid.  Unless emissions of carbon dioxide are limited, scientists warn that the ocean will grow more and more acidic.  Coral reefs and marine life are especially sensitive to the pH balance of the ocean, and increased acidification could have catastrophic consequences, such as the creation of ocean “dead zones” devoid of sea life.

The National Research Council’s data shows ocean acidity has increased 0.1 points (out of a 14 point pH scale).  This data indicates that ocean chemistry has changed more since the Industrial Revolution than at any other point over the last 800,000 years.

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Recent estimates expect the global automobile fleet to double over the next 20 years – growing from 800m today to over 1.6bn in 2030.  This massive growth is occurring as developing powers like China and India increase levels of individual car ownership.  However, the extra emissions resulting from millions upon millions more vehicles on the world’s roadways could be dramatic, and adversely affect global efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

The European Commission has launched a “green transport” initiative in an effort to reach their emissions reductions goals.  By 2050, the EU is aiming for an 80 to 95% decrease in transport-related emissions.  The Commission believes widespread deployment of green transportation options, such as electric vehicles, public transportation and low-carbon and sustainable fuels will go a long way to achieving this goal.

The initiative calls for, among other things, Europe-wide standards for electric vehicle charging by 2011, continued research into low-carbon and energy efficient methods of transportation, financial incentives to encourage consumers and will work with the European Investment Bank to catalyze funding for green vehicle infrastructure and services.

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After three days of negotiations between 194 countries, the UN’s latest round of climate talks in Bonn, Germany drew to a close with plans for further negotiations in Cancún, Mexico this December.  Two additional negotiating sessions will be added during the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which takes place from May 31st to June 11th.

Yvo de Boer, the outgoing executive secretary of the UNFCCC, said “The UN Climate Change Conference in Cancún must do what Copenhagen did not achieve: It must finalize a functioning architecture for implementation that launches global climate action, across the board, especially in developing nations.”

Mr. de Boer explained that certain issues in particular demand global attention, namely mitigation targets and action, an adaptation package, new technology mechanism, financial arrangements, deforestation issues as well as a capacity-building framework.

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China and India have formally agreed to ratify the Copenhagen Accord, the global climate agreement which stemmed from last year’s U.N. climate change convention in Copenhagen.

Over 100 countries have already approved the Accord, which aims to limit the increase in global temperatures to no more than 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, above pre-industrial levels.  The Accord also calls for spending on the scale of $100 billion a year to assist emerging countries in making adaptations to climate change.

China and India are two of the world’s fastest growing economies, and in recent years their rates of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions have skyrocketed.  By joining the Accord, China and India have added legitimacy to the treaty and have demonstrated to the rest of the world that they are serious about addressing these important climate issues.

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U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu announced $100 million in new stimulus funding for the Advanced Research Projects Agency – Energy, or ARPA-E.

Modeled after the successful military research initiative DARPA, ARPA-E aims to speed up the development and deployment of “transformational” energy initiatives in the United States.  ARPA-E selects from thousands of grant applications to fund is multi-disciplinary, “out of the box” ideas which may help reduce U.S. carbon emissions, create jobs as well as improve national energy security.

At the inaugural ARPA-E Energy Innovation Summit, it was announced that ARPA-E’s third round of financing will focus specifically on Grid- Scale Rampable Intermittent Dispatchable Storage technologies (GRIDS), Agile Delivery of Electrical Power Technology (ADEPT), and Building Energy Efficiency Through Innovating Thermodynamics (BEET-IT).

Arun Majumdar, director of ARPA-E, says the “number of good ideas has been amazing, and we don’t even have all the intellectual horsepower of the U.S. into clean energy.  We are not short of ideas – the question is, what happens next?”

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New Delhi, 4 February 2010 – The World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) today launched the Vision 2050 report ( 2.6 MB), a study that lays out a pathway leading to a global population of some 9 billion people living well, within the resource limits of the planet by 2050. The report, released at the World CEO Forum in New Delhi, India, was compiled by 29 leading global companies representing 14 industries.

This work results from an 18-month combined effort with CEOs and experts, and dialogues with over 200 companies and external stakeholders in some 20 countries.

The report presents new opportunities for business in a broad range of business segments with the foresight to lead their societies on a sustainable business development agenda. Entitled Vision 2050: The new agenda for business, the report “lays out the challenges, pathway and options that business can use to create an opportunity-rich strategy, both regionally and globally, that will lead to a sustainable world,” said Dr. Mohammad A. Zaidi, Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer of Alcoa, who led the project as one of four co-chairs.

“The world already has the knowledge, science, technologies, skills and financial resources needed to achieve Vision 2050. However, concerted global action in the next decade will be required to bring these capabilities and resources together, putting the world on the path to sustainability,” explained WBCSD President Bjorn Stigson.

The publication outlines a future in which 9 billion people live well, enjoying health, food, shelter, energy, mobility, education and other basics of life. Syngenta CEO, Michael Mack added that “humanity has largely had an exploitative relationship with our planet; we can, and should, aim to make this a symbiotic one.” In the Vision 2050scenario, global society attains this standard of living at a sustainable rate, without further harm to biodiversity, climate and ecosystem services.

The report states that the world already has the resources to achieve Vision 2050,but there is a catch: “The radical changes highlighted in Vision 2050 demand a different perspective from business leaders, requiring them to rethink how they operate to stay on-track for a sustainable future,” added Samuel A. DiPiazza Jr., former CEO and Chairman of PricewaterhouseCoopers. This includes a radical transformation of global markets, governance and infrastructure, and a re-thinking of our ideas of growth and progress.

Vision 2050 spells out the “must haves” – the things that must happen over the coming decade to make a sustainable planetary society possible. These include incorporating the costs of externalities, starting with carbon, ecosystem services and water, into the structure of the marketplace; doubling agricultural output without increasing the amount of land or water used; halting deforestation and increasing yields from planted forests: halving carbon emissions worldwide (based on 2005 levels) by 2050 through a shift to low-carbon energy systems and improved demand-side energy efficiency, and providing universal access to low-carbon mobility.

As part of this transformation, Vision 2050 calls for a new agenda for business: to work with government and society worldwide to transform markets and competition. “Sustainability will become a key driver for all our investment decisions,” added Idar Kreutzer, CEO of Storebrand and another project co-chair. New rules for markets will reframe environmental challenges as economic challenges, driving innovation and competition in the direction of sustainability and away from resource- and energy-intensive production. Rationalizing prices to include such externalities as climate and biodiversity impacts will make corporate environmental efficiency a true competitive advantage across all industries and regions.

Business will lead market change by doing what business does best: forming partnerships, creating efficiencies and competitive advantage, seizing opportunities and meeting customer needs. At the same time, a shift toward sustainability will trigger trillions of dollars in new investments in infrastructure, technology and human services, creating new opportunities for business to thrive and grow. A recent study commissioned for this project with PricewaterhouseCoopers and released today indicates that this investment could reach US$ 3-10 trillion per annum in 2050.

Vision 2050, with its best-case scenario for sustainability and pathways for reaching it, is a tool for thought leadership, a platform for beginning the dialogue that must take place to navigate the challenging years to come. “It is hoped that the Vision 2050 work will be used for many years to come. It is designed to be a platform for companies when deliberating strategies and for dialogue with governments and society about how to realize the sustainable future,” concluded Per Sandberg, Project Director for Vision 2050.

Download

• Vision 2050: The new agenda for business – full report ( 2.6 MB)
• Vision 2050: The new agenda for business – summary report ( 2.4 MB)

Affluent countries are making good on their Copenhagen promises to provide monetary aid to poor nations grappling with the effects of climate change. Thus far, funding pledges for 2010-2012 are nearly $30 billion, including $15 billion from Japan and €7 billion from the European Union.

However, the “Copenhagen Green Climate Fund” planned in last month’s conference has not yet been implemented, making it likely that the donor countries will each determine how their aid packages are distributed and to whom.  Delegates from China, India, Brazil and South Africa have welcomed the pledge, calling the $10 billion expected to be released in 2010 an important symbol of rich countries’ willingness to help.

The Copenhagen Accord set forth a January 31^st deadline for nations to submit quantitative details on their voluntary emissions reductions targets and achievement strategies.  The United States has formally submitted its approval, and informed the United Nations of its intent to reduce carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions 17% from 2005 levels by 2020.  Todd Stern, the chief U.S. climate change negotiator, said final emissions targets will be submitted following Congress’ passage of energy legislation requiring carbon cuts.

2000-2009 was the warmest decade in historical record, according to NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt says it is “completely unambiguous” that the last ten years have trumped all other others since NASA’s record-keeping began in 1880.

Over the past 30 years, surfaces temperatures have risen on average 0.36°F each decade, but the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s National Climatic Data Center confirms that between 2000 and 2009, average global surface temperatures rose 0.96°F over the 20^th century average.

NOAA data shows that global ocean temperatures are rising as well.  This past December, ocean temperatures were the second warmest on record, trailing the year 1997.  NOAA scientists warn this trend could detrimentally impact marine food chains, and may reduce the ability of oceans to store oxygen, resulting in oxygen-deprived areas known as “dead zones.”

These dead zones lack the ability to support marine life, and currently make up less than 2% of the ocean’s volume.  However, if global warming continues unchecked, the amount of dead zones in the earth’s oceans could increase ten-fold over the next century.

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Although carbon markets have struggled to find their footing in the aftermath of the Copenhagen climate talks, Reuters is reporting an uptick in demand for voluntary carbon credits.

“Since this year started we have seen a huge amount of interest – mostly from the U.S. – in carbon credits and it won’t be long before the voluntary market begins really to gain some momentum,” said Matthew Sullivan, CEO of carbon offset retailer the Carbon Advice Group.

The unregulated voluntary market is a mechanism for businesses to buy and sell credits – known as Voluntary Carbon Standard (VCS) or Gold Standards – for self-imposed and self-regulated emission reductions schemes.  It operates separately from the United Nation’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), and the European Union’s Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), which together comprise the vast majority of the global carbon market.

Interest in both the CDM and the ETS has wavered since Copenhagen, as analysts and traders try to make sense of how the Copenhagen Accord, the non-binding agreement produced at the conference, will affect future demand and prices across the market.

The post-Copenhagen fallout continues.

China is taking a fair share of criticism from unhappy politicians, negotiators and activists who say that the developing giant prevented adoption of a more ambitious global climate accord in order to protect itself economically.  China has responded in turn, calling these attacks unfounded and citing other developed nations’ reluctance to commit to hefty reductions.

On the contrary, China is satisfied with its participation in Copenhagen, and says for the first time in its history, the nation will reduce domestic emissions in the form of reducing carbon intensity.  Legislation to that effect is intended to go before the National People’s Congress, the highest law-making body.

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