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Data from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy shows global energy consumption fell by 1.1% last year, with oil and and natural gas usage down across the board.

Global coal use, however, has remained steady.  In fact, as a percentage of world primary energy usage, coal has risen to levels not seen since 1971.

On the other hand, oil’s percentage of global energy usage has fallen consistently over the past decade; from 39.00% in 1999 down to 34.77% in 2009.

As oil production becomes more difficult and expensive, coal is increasingly being employed as a source of transportation fuels.  Nations like South Africa and China have been expanding their coal-to-liquid (CTL) programs, and China reportedly has six major CTL projects under development.

CTL processes may present an alternative way to generate liquid fuel, but it comes at a price.  CTL produces nearly double the greenhouse gas emissions of conventional fuel production from oil, and many climate and environmental advocates worry that if CTL programs become more widespread the world would experience increased emissions levels.

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The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is instituting its first-ever strategic plan to deal with “Rare earth metals” – the special group of elements that are essential components of clean energy technologies like electric vehicle batteries, compact flourescent light bulbs and solar panels.

As nations around the world increase development and deployment of clean energy, there is a growing anxiety about China’s clear dominance of these essential supplies.  China currently supplies nearly 95% of global demand  for rare earth metals, and the government is attempting to control all processing of rare earth metals.  Over the past seven years,  China has reduced global exports by 40% and some estimates expect China will begin halting exports of these rare earths within the next two years.

“It goes without saying that diversified sources of supply are important for any strategic material,” said David Sandalow, Assistant Secretary of Energy for Policy & International Affairs.  ”So too are substitutes and strategies for re-use and recycling.  If rare earth metals are going to play an increasing role in our economy, we need to pursue those strategies.”  The DOE is soliciting information from industry, research labs and other related organizations to gain a more complete understanding of cost and supply issues regarding rare earth metals.

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Recent estimates expect the global automobile fleet to double over the next 20 years – growing from 800m today to over 1.6bn in 2030.  This massive growth is occurring as developing powers like China and India increase levels of individual car ownership.  However, the extra emissions resulting from millions upon millions more vehicles on the world’s roadways could be dramatic, and adversely affect global efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

The European Commission has launched a “green transport” initiative in an effort to reach their emissions reductions goals.  By 2050, the EU is aiming for an 80 to 95% decrease in transport-related emissions.  The Commission believes widespread deployment of green transportation options, such as electric vehicles, public transportation and low-carbon and sustainable fuels will go a long way to achieving this goal.

The initiative calls for, among other things, Europe-wide standards for electric vehicle charging by 2011, continued research into low-carbon and energy efficient methods of transportation, financial incentives to encourage consumers and will work with the European Investment Bank to catalyze funding for green vehicle infrastructure and services.

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China’s largely untapped vehicle market is becoming more and more attractive for electric vehicle manufacturers, service providers and investors.  Newfound economic prosperity has resulted in many first-time vehicle purchases amongst Chinese citizens.  In 2009, 2% of China’s population owned cars, and 80% of new motor vehicle sales went to first-time buyers.

According to HSBC research, China’s share of the world electric vehicle market will jump from 2.7% to 35% in the next ten years.  During this rapid period of growth, HSBC expects China to push past the United States and Japan.

There is a rapidly growing, yet little serviced market here, and many believe this is a perfect opening to jump in.  A recent example is Better Place, the electric vehicle service provider which aims to install vehicle charging networks to support an electric vehicle infrastructure.  Better Place has inked a deal with Chery Automobile, China’s largest independent auto producer and a major exporter of electric vehicle technology, and will bring its business to the Chinese market for the first time.

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New Delhi, 4 February 2010 – The World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) today launched the Vision 2050 report ( 2.6 MB), a study that lays out a pathway leading to a global population of some 9 billion people living well, within the resource limits of the planet by 2050. The report, released at the World CEO Forum in New Delhi, India, was compiled by 29 leading global companies representing 14 industries.

This work results from an 18-month combined effort with CEOs and experts, and dialogues with over 200 companies and external stakeholders in some 20 countries.

The report presents new opportunities for business in a broad range of business segments with the foresight to lead their societies on a sustainable business development agenda. Entitled Vision 2050: The new agenda for business, the report “lays out the challenges, pathway and options that business can use to create an opportunity-rich strategy, both regionally and globally, that will lead to a sustainable world,” said Dr. Mohammad A. Zaidi, Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer of Alcoa, who led the project as one of four co-chairs.

“The world already has the knowledge, science, technologies, skills and financial resources needed to achieve Vision 2050. However, concerted global action in the next decade will be required to bring these capabilities and resources together, putting the world on the path to sustainability,” explained WBCSD President Bjorn Stigson.

The publication outlines a future in which 9 billion people live well, enjoying health, food, shelter, energy, mobility, education and other basics of life. Syngenta CEO, Michael Mack added that “humanity has largely had an exploitative relationship with our planet; we can, and should, aim to make this a symbiotic one.” In the Vision 2050scenario, global society attains this standard of living at a sustainable rate, without further harm to biodiversity, climate and ecosystem services.

The report states that the world already has the resources to achieve Vision 2050,but there is a catch: “The radical changes highlighted in Vision 2050 demand a different perspective from business leaders, requiring them to rethink how they operate to stay on-track for a sustainable future,” added Samuel A. DiPiazza Jr., former CEO and Chairman of PricewaterhouseCoopers. This includes a radical transformation of global markets, governance and infrastructure, and a re-thinking of our ideas of growth and progress.

Vision 2050 spells out the “must haves” – the things that must happen over the coming decade to make a sustainable planetary society possible. These include incorporating the costs of externalities, starting with carbon, ecosystem services and water, into the structure of the marketplace; doubling agricultural output without increasing the amount of land or water used; halting deforestation and increasing yields from planted forests: halving carbon emissions worldwide (based on 2005 levels) by 2050 through a shift to low-carbon energy systems and improved demand-side energy efficiency, and providing universal access to low-carbon mobility.

As part of this transformation, Vision 2050 calls for a new agenda for business: to work with government and society worldwide to transform markets and competition. “Sustainability will become a key driver for all our investment decisions,” added Idar Kreutzer, CEO of Storebrand and another project co-chair. New rules for markets will reframe environmental challenges as economic challenges, driving innovation and competition in the direction of sustainability and away from resource- and energy-intensive production. Rationalizing prices to include such externalities as climate and biodiversity impacts will make corporate environmental efficiency a true competitive advantage across all industries and regions.

Business will lead market change by doing what business does best: forming partnerships, creating efficiencies and competitive advantage, seizing opportunities and meeting customer needs. At the same time, a shift toward sustainability will trigger trillions of dollars in new investments in infrastructure, technology and human services, creating new opportunities for business to thrive and grow. A recent study commissioned for this project with PricewaterhouseCoopers and released today indicates that this investment could reach US$ 3-10 trillion per annum in 2050.

Vision 2050, with its best-case scenario for sustainability and pathways for reaching it, is a tool for thought leadership, a platform for beginning the dialogue that must take place to navigate the challenging years to come. “It is hoped that the Vision 2050 work will be used for many years to come. It is designed to be a platform for companies when deliberating strategies and for dialogue with governments and society about how to realize the sustainable future,” concluded Per Sandberg, Project Director for Vision 2050.

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• Vision 2050: The new agenda for business – full report ( 2.6 MB)
• Vision 2050: The new agenda for business – summary report ( 2.4 MB)

Sales of hybrid and electric vehicles are expected to jump over the next decade as the world weans itself off of conventional gasoline powered cars.

In a new report, Pike Research predicts hybrid sales in the global fleet sector will total 4 million by 2015.  The North American market will experience the most growth as awareness of the energy savings properties of hybrid vehicles grows.  By 2015, nearly 10% of all buses sold will be hybrids, the report says.

Carlos Ghosn, the CEO of Nissan, is expecting similar growth in the global electric vehicle market, largely because of growing environmental consciousness.  ”I’m betting 10% of the global buyers will make a rational decision on what to drive.  And I think I’m being conservative at 10%,” he said.  According to consulting firm J.D. Power, approximately 50,000 electric cars will likely be sold in the U.S. in 2015.

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New Research Says Return to 2005 Peak is Unlikely

Oil demand in industrialized nations likely reached its peak in 2005, according to research from IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA).  Demand has dropped since then, and CERA analysts doubt it will ever get back there again.  Demand for oil began to fall in the developed world years before the global financial collapse.  In fact, outside of the transportation sector, CERA data shows oil demand has been roughly flat since 1980.  Population growth in developed nations has remained stagnant, and levels of vehicle ownership in these markets will soon hit their saturation point.  Taken together, these factors will decrease the demand for oil from the transportation sector in the years ahead.  The addition of hybrid and electric vehicles into the global auto marketplace will amplify this trend.  CERA expects demand to decline gradually until 2030, and by no means implies the “oil age” in developed nations will come to an abrupt end.  Rather, it predicts that as demand for oil weans, demand for natural gas will continue to grow.  Natural gas supplies have jumped thanks to high production from the U.S., and new policy initiatives that support cleaner burning fuels will also help the industry to grow.

New Report Finds Major Potential in Electric & Hybrid Vehicles

A newly released report from Deutsche Bank says that electric cars have the potential to bring about the “end of the oil age” as we know it.  The report, entitled “The Peak Oil Market,” says the lack of investment in new discovery and production by global oil industry giants may result in a dangerous price crunch in the coming years.  Deutsche Bank postulates that oil prices will return to their record highs of last summer, possibly reaching $175 per barrel by 2016.  However, once the electric and hybrid car market takes hold, by 2030, DB predicts oil prices may drop down to $70 again as the world weans itself off its addition to gasoline.  Deutsche Bank calls electric and hybrid vehicles “disruptive technologies” which possess the potential to “reverse the dynamics of world oil demand.” If these types of vehicles achieve wide-spread commercialization, as they are expected to, DB expects demand for conventional gasoline will head into an “inexorable and accelerating decline.”

2008 Increase Saves Nation 4.2 Billion Barrels of Gasoline

Ridership on public transportation systems in the United States increased by 4% last year, says Environment America in a new report.  This increase effectively saved the nation 4.2 billion gallons of gasoline, the approximate amount guzzled by 7.2 million cars every year.  In 2008, the use of public transportation systems reduced greenhouse gas emission in the U.S. by 37 million tons.  “Aside from energy savings and reduction in climate change causing carbon emissions, Metro and our other transit services offer greater travel choices and save families money,” said Stewart Schwartz, Executive Director of the Coalition for Smarter Growth.  Citing figures from the American Public Transportation Association (APTA), Schwartz explained that the average two-person household in the U.S. stands to save up to $9,167 a year by living with one less car.

Industry Announces to Decrease Net Emissions 50% by 2050

Under the leadership of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the world’s largest airlines announced a commitment to reduce net emissions 50% from 2005 levels by the year 2050.  The airlines were nervous that regulations would be forced upon them in the near future if they didn’t take action soon, according to British newspaper the Guardian.   However, in choosing a 2005 baseline rather than the more common 1990 level from which to measure emissions reductions, the airlines have effectively limited the ambitions of the overall target.   Starting in 2012, airlines which operate in European Union countries will be required to participate in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme and deal with all associated costs.  The airlines pledge to improve CO2 efficiency by an average of 1.5% each year up to 2020, and stabilize net CO2 emissions following that point.  In addition, the industry will submit a framework and working plan to achieve these targets to the U.N. by November of next year.

IBM Report Highlights New Metropolitan Transportation Ideas

As cities grow more populous and polluted, a new research report from IBM warns they will face severe traffic management challenges.  IBM’s publication, “Intelligent Transport: How Cities Can Improve Mobility,” states that by 2050, 70% of the world’s population will be living in cities for the first time in human history.  The 20 million cars on the road today in China will likely increase to 140 million by 2020, adding stress to the nation’s roadways.  These problems are not unique to the developing world.  The cost of congestion in the U.S. is reportedly $200 billion annually, and in Europe, traffic problems from the continent’s 300 million drivers costs the EU close to 1% of its GDP – €100 billion – every year.  IBM’s study conducted extensive interviews with urban planners and transport officials in over 50 cities around the world, and almost all have started planning improved transport and mobility schemes, including initiatives such as integrated fare management, traffic prediction and road user charging.

China & India are World’s Fastest Growing Car Markets

The Economist Foresees Hurdles for Electric Vehicles

Over the next 40 years, the number of passenger cars on the world’s roadways is expected to increase four-fold to 3 billion cars.  China is likely to supplant the U.S. as the world’s largest car market; by 2050, there could be as many cars in China as there are on the planet today.  By that time, India’s car fleet may have increased 50 times over.  Already, automobiles contribute 10% of global greenhouse gas emissions, and rapid fleet expansion, especially in developing countries, has severely increased local air pollution.  Faced with these predictions, a year and a half ago Renault-Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn said if the industry did not start producing cars will little or no emissions, the world would “explode.”  Chevy and Nissan have recently made headlines with their new electric models, and across the board, mainstream auto companies are producing fuel efficient or hybrid lines.  However, despite the promise of electric vehicles, a recent article in The Economist says the industry’s two largest hurdles – pricing and charging- have not gone away and require attention.  The Nissan “Leaf” and Chevy “Volt” cost almost twice as much as conventional gasoline cars, and they require nightly charging to keep their batteries full.  Until prices come down and charging mechanisms become more convenient, electric cars “may remain little more than a promising niche technology,” the magazine writes.