China is faced with a daunting food challenge that has been getting worse as the population expands.  The nation posseses only 7% of global arable land, but must feed 22% of the world’s people.  Its per capita water supplies are only 25% of the world’s average levels.  China’s northern regions hold 18% of total water supplies and 65% of the nation’s arable land, but the climate in those areas has become drier over the years.

By the end of 2015, China’s population is expected to reach 1.39 billion, requiring a 4 million ton increase in annual grain supply over the next decade, but according to the Nature article, water limitations may reduce rice yields by 4 to 14%, wheat by 2 to 20% and corn by 0 to 23% by the middle of this century.

China’s agriculture minister acknowledges the nation faces a “formidable task” in meeting food demand in the face of growing resource scarcity.

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Changing climate and rainfall patterns have hit many of the world’s agricultural production regions hard, especially in regions of Africa and Asia.  Despite advances in irrigation technology, it is estimated that 66% of Asian agriculture is dependent on rainfall, and in Sub-Saharan Africa, that percentage is as high as 94%.

Experts are urging policy makers to help farmers improve storage systems and develop better water management skills.  “For millions of people dependent on rain-fed agriculture, reliable access to water can make all the difference between chronic hunger and steady progress toward food security,” said hydrologist Matthew McCartney.  “Just as modern consumers diversify their financial holdings to reduce risk, smallholder farmers need a wide array of ‘water accounts’ to provide a buffer against climate change impacts.”

The report warns against over-dependence on one source of water, and encourages governments in vulnerable regions to consider storage solutions big and small, from large-scale dams to local ponds, tanks and reservoirs.  “Even small amounts of stored water, by enabling crops and livestock to survive dry periods, can produce large gains in agricultural productivity and in the wellbeing of rural people,” said McCartney.

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Similar scenarios are playing out elsewhere in the world.  Droughts in Kansas, for instance, have killed off over 2,000 cattle and flooding in Pakistan has destroyed thousands of acres of crops.

“Over the whole globe all these changes in climate… are going to cause some real ripples in our capabilities of producing food,” warned Jerry Hatfield, laboratory director at the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Agriculture Research Service.

Analysts at HSBC warn that if countries cannot not adapt to higher temperatures and more extreme weather, grain production in G20 countries may fall 8.7% by 2020.  With population growth taken into account, HSBC predicts G20 per capita grain production could drop between 11.9% and 16.1% by 2020.

Reduced output could “create havoc” in agricultural markets around the world, driving up the price of food and other essential goods.  There is grave concern that price spikes could result in unrest in many poor or resource-scarce countries similar to the riots that took place during 2007-2008, when global food prices spiked based on rampant market speculation.

Watch video of air pollution from Russian fires – released by NASA

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Abnormally high temperatures have been recorded in Canada, Africa, tropical oceans and regions of the Middle East, with nations such as Britain, Thailand and Israel suffering severe droughts.

A La Nina weather pattern expected later this year could bring cooler weather globally, however it often translates into hotter and drier weather in the U.S. Midwestern farm belt, which could be detrimental to corn and soy bean crops.

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Part of Norway’s $1 billion investment will go towards creating and monitoring new projects under the U.N.-baked forest conservation scheme, called Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD).  The Indonesia-based Center for International Forestry Research said this new deal could be “a game-changer in the drive to make REDD a reality.”

Norway and Indonesia’s landmark deal was supported by another notable investor – billionaire George Soros.  In advance of the deal-signing, Soros said he would personally guarantee $50 million to help slow global deforestation, which he believes is of the utmost importance in the struggle to reduce emissions.  ”If you can stop the eradication of the forest before it happens, its much easier than to reclaim the degraded land.  That is why I think quick action is so important.”

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Deforestation is a worldwide problem which contributes mightily to global greenhouse emissions.  It is estimated that one-fifth of all carbon dioxide emissions result from chopping down forestland, especially in tropical zones.

Land preservationists and climate change advocates want to end this environmentally harmful practice, saying doing so will benefit not only the atmosphere, but the U.S. farming economy.

A recent study by the National Farmers Union and Avoided Deforestation Partners estimates if global deforestation were stopped, the U.S. agricultural sector could boost its revenues from $190 billion to $270 billion through 2030.

U.S. crops  have long been undercut by unfairly cheap commodities harvested on “slash-and-burn” cleared land.  Stemming this practice would slow the spread of these artificially cheap commodities into the global marketplace.  The report says U.S. timber, soybean, oilseed and beef industries stand to enjoy particular gains.

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According to Joachin von Braun, the former director general of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), global population is predicted to reach over 9 billion people by 2050, up from today’s current total of 6.3 billion.  To keep up with the resulting increased demand, agricultural production worldwide will need to grow by 70% above today’s levels.

However, investment in agricultural research has declined over the past decades, making it more difficult to solve this looming production problem.  The unpredictable effects of climate change will likely also complicate global efforts.  ”We have realized the problem of food security is not only a technical, economic, ethical problem.  It’s a problem of peace and security in the world,” remarked von Braun, who urged for increased subsidies for under-privileged farmers in vulnerable countries, and more funding for agricultural research.

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It is estimated that nearly 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions come from deforestation and agricultural practices.  As global population continues to grow, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that food production levels will need to increase by 70% by 2050.

Watson and other food scientists fear that agriculture will not be made as high a priority as it should be at the Copenhagen talks, as delegates are largely focused on the energy production and power sectors.    With the use of new technology, Watson says food production and security can be improved while simultaneously cutting emissions.

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Climate change could be a “major development opportunity” for agricultural carbon sequestration in Africa, said managing director of the World Bank Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala in a lecture at the London School of Economics.  As global emission rise, using plant life to absorb and store CO2 is likely to become an important and commonly used mitigating strategy, she said.  By 2030, the U.N. estimates that 5.5-6 gigatons of CO2 could be stored via agricultural sequestration, with approximately 89% being stored in the soil.  If such strategies are incorporated into international carbon treaties, “agricultural carbon sequestration could generate annual revenues of close to $1.5 billion” for Africa, remarked Okonjo-Iweala.  However, despite these new economic opportunities, Africa is still very vulnerable to the effects of climate change.  Rising temperatures could bring increased instances of both drought and flooding, spelling trouble for the African agricultural industry, which employs about 70% of the Continent’s population.