Many of the world’s largest developed nations experienced a drop in emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in 2009.  China and India, however, saw their own domestic emissions levels rise significantly.  Has this growth in effect “canceled out” the reductions made in developed nations?  According to the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the answer is yes.

Global emissions levels remained relatively unchanged in 2009 largely because of Chinese and Indian contributions, despite predictions from groups such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) which thought the global economic meltdown and decrease in manufacturing would assuredly reduce emissions worldwide.

The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency notes that carbon dioxide emissions per person in China are now 6.1 tons, roughly equal to France which clocked in at 6.0 tons in 2009.  This figure represents a major increase for China, which in 1990 emitted only 2.2 tons per capita.    Interestingly, this increase comes Chinese wind and solar energy capacity has doubled for the fifth year in a row.

Because of its use of nuclear energy, French emissions are actually on the lower end of the scale in comparison to other developed nations.  Per capita emissions in other EU member nations were 7.9 tons in 2009, down from 9.1 tons in 1990, while per capita emissions in the United Sates fell to 17.2 tons in 2009, decreasing from 19.5 tons in 1990.

All in all, the Dutch agency now reports that 53% of 2009 global emissions came from developing nations, with 44% coming from the developed world.  International air and sea transportation accounts for the remaining 3%.

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Data from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy shows global energy consumption fell by 1.1% last year, with oil and and natural gas usage down across the board.

Global coal use, however, has remained steady.  In fact, as a percentage of world primary energy usage, coal has risen to levels not seen since 1971.

On the other hand, oil’s percentage of global energy usage has fallen consistently over the past decade; from 39.00% in 1999 down to 34.77% in 2009.

As oil production becomes more difficult and expensive, coal is increasingly being employed as a source of transportation fuels.  Nations like South Africa and China have been expanding their coal-to-liquid (CTL) programs, and China reportedly has six major CTL projects under development.

CTL processes may present an alternative way to generate liquid fuel, but it comes at a price.  CTL produces nearly double the greenhouse gas emissions of conventional fuel production from oil, and many climate and environmental advocates worry that if CTL programs become more widespread the world would experience increased emissions levels.

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According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, global emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions decreased for the first time since 1998, dropping 1.1% to 31.13 billion tons after 2008′s peak of 31.55 billion tons.

However, despite this overall reduction, China’s greenhouse gas emissions have grown sharply as the nation rapidly industrializes and continues to construct new coal-fired power plants.  China is now the world’s leading emitter, having overtaken the United States in 2008.  This past year, China ‘s fossil fuel combustion released 7.5 billion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere.

China is not the only developing nation whose emissions have grown sharply.  India also saw an increase of 7%, and it has now overtaken Russia as the world’s third largest emitter.  In aggregate, the developing world now accounts for half of all global emissions.

United States emissions, on the other hand, fell by 6.5% to 5.9 billion tons in 2009, the lowest level since 1995.  However, “although the share of emerging markets is growing, the industrialized countries remain the preponderant source of historical greenhouse gases,” reminds Nick Robins, head of HSBC’s Climate Change Center of Excellence.

The United States and China, as well as the world’s other top emitters, now find themselves under tremendous pressure to either extend the Kyoto Protocol or formulate a successor to the climate treaty, which is set to expire in 2012.  Nations are also attempting to come up with domestic emissions reductions plans of their own.  “In terms of future emissions targets, China is ahead of the U.S. because it has set itself commitments to reduce carbon intensity, while the U.S. is struggling to get climate legislation through Congress,” remarks Robins.

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The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is urging G20 nations to end subsidies for fossil fuels and to follow through with the pledge made after last year’s gathering in Toronto to phase out these massive subsidies over the near- to medium- term.

OECD chief  Angel Gurría calls these subsidies, which by some estimates may be as much as $557 billion a year in developing nations and over $100 billion in the industrialized world, a “wasteful use of scarce budget resources.”  There is a contradiction, he says, because”many governments are giving subsidies to fossil fuel production and consumption that encourage greenhouse gas emissions, at the same time they are spending on projects to promote clean energy.”

According to some estimates, eliminating fossil fuel subsidies may help to reduce total global greenhouse emissions by 10% from their expected 2050 levels.  This would greatly assist  G20 nations with other policy initiatives to mitigate the effects of global warming.

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Norway and Indonesia have signed a $1 billion agreement designed to curb rapid deforestation in vulnerable forests and peatlands.  In return for Norway’s significant investment, Indonesia will impose a 2 year moratorium on all new concessions of peat and natural forest lands for clearing.

Part of Norway’s $1 billion investment will go towards creating and monitoring new projects under the U.N.-baked forest conservation scheme, called Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD).  The Indonesia-based Center for International Forestry Research said this new deal could be “a game-changer in the drive to make REDD a reality.”

Norway and Indonesia’s landmark deal was supported by another notable investor – billionaire George Soros.  In advance of the deal-signing, Soros said he would personally guarantee $50 million to help slow global deforestation, which he believes is of the utmost importance in the struggle to reduce emissions.  ”If you can stop the eradication of the forest before it happens, its much easier than to reclaim the degraded land.  That is why I think quick action is so important.”

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According to an Ernst & Young global survey of 300 corporate executives, 70% of global firms with revenues of $1 billion or more say they will be increasing spending on climate change initiatives over the next two years.

Energy efficiency investments emerged as a major theme from the survey results.   More than 82% of respondents expected to make energy efficiency investments over the next year, and 92% of those polled said energy costs would be high on the list of priorities over that time period.

Melanie Steiner of Ernst & Young said these results show that despite uncertainty over climate change, “companies are really taking action anyway, because they’re seeing that this is a business issue and an opportunity to generate new revenue.”

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Carbon dioxide emissions are changing the the chemistry of the world’s oceans at an “unprecedented rate and magnitude.”  The current rate of change “exceeds any known to have occurred for at least the past hundreds of thousands of years,” says the National Research Council in a recent report.

Oceans are one of the world’s largest “carbon sinks,” storing about one-third of all CO2 emissions.  However, when CO2 is stored in the ocean, it reacts with seawater to form carbonic acid.  Unless emissions of carbon dioxide are limited, scientists warn that the ocean will grow more and more acidic.  Coral reefs and marine life are especially sensitive to the pH balance of the ocean, and increased acidification could have catastrophic consequences, such as the creation of ocean “dead zones” devoid of sea life.

The National Research Council’s data shows ocean acidity has increased 0.1 points (out of a 14 point pH scale).  This data indicates that ocean chemistry has changed more since the Industrial Revolution than at any other point over the last 800,000 years.

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As the United States Senate prepares to re-visit climate change legislation, the special envoy to the Chinese president voiced grave concern over the effects un-mitigated climate change could have on China’s economy.

“The scale of economic destruction would be equivalent to that of the two world wars and the Great Depression combined” if global temperatures rise by 3°C to 4°C, Xie Zhenhua wrote recently in the China Economic Herald.  ”Human beings cannot afford such disasters.”

In now appears that the group of BASIC countries (Brazil, South Africa, India and China) are becoming more amenable to the terms of the Kyoto Protocol, which they had previously resisted heartedly.  This resistance was a major reason why the United States never ratified the treaty, which is set to expire in 2012.  BASIC environment ministers will meet in South Africa later this month to incorporate elements of the Copenhagen Accord, the non-binding agreement formulated at the Copenhagen climate talks last December, can be worked into a broader global pact to succeed the Kyoto Protocol.

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AFP, 13 February 2010 – Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates has broken from philanthropic work fighting poverty and disease to take on another threat to the world’s poor — climate change.

“Energy and climate are extremely important to these people,” Gates told Friday a TED Conference audience packed with influential figures including the founders of Google and climate champion Al Gore.

Click here to view his speech

“The climate getting worse means many years that crops won’t grow from too much rain or not enough, leading to starvation and certainly unrest.”

Gates said he is backing development of “terrapower” reactors that could be fueled by nuclear waste from disposal facilities or generated by today’s power plants.

He broke down variables in a carbon-dioxide-culprit formula, homing in on a conclusion that the answer to the problem is a source of energy that produces no carbon.

“The formula is a very straight forward one,” Gates said. “More carbon dioxide equals temperature increase equals negative effects like collapsed ecosystems. We have to get to zero.”

To dramatize his point, Gates pulled out a large jar of fireflies in playful flashback to when he unleashed mosquitoes on a TED audience a year earlier while discussing battling malaria.

“They won’t bite,” Gates joked of the fireflies. “As a matter of fact, they might not even leave this jar.”

Gates touted terrapower as more reliable than wind or solar, cleaner than burning coal or natural gas, and safer than current nuclear plants.

“With the right materials approach it could work,” Gates said. “Because you burn 99 percent of the waste, it is kind of like a candle.”

Nuclear waste fed into a terrapower reactor would potentially burn for decades before being exhausted.

“Today we are always refueling the reactor so lot of controls and lots of things that can go wrong,” Gates said. “That is not good. With this, you have a piece of fuel, think of it like a log, that burns for 60 years and it is done.”

Researching and testing terrapower will cost hundreds of millions of dollars, with the building of a test reactor likely to cost in the billions.

Once the technology is proven, market forces will drive down costs, Gates predicted.

Work on terrapower hos been done in France and Japan, and there has been interest in India, Russia, China and the United States, according to the famed philanthropist.

Gates said that if he were allowed a single wish in the coming 50 years, it would be a global “zero carbon” culture.

“If I could pick a president or a vaccine, which I love, this is the wish I would pick,” he said.

“We need energy miracles. The microprocessor and Internet are miracles.

This is a case where we have to drive and get the miracle in a short time-line.”

Gates dismissed climate change skeptics, saying terrapower would render arguments moot because the energy produced would be cheaper than pollution-spewing methods used today.

“The skeptics will accept it because it is cheaper,” Gates said. “The might wish it did put out CO2, but they will take it.”

The world is at “an extraordinary moment” in the struggle to save the climate balance, according to former US vice president Gore.

A vital step will be to put a price on carbon dioxide emissions so the cost of polluting the air gets factored into the global economy.

Legislation to do that has cleared the US House of Representatives and must fight its way through the Senate, where it needs only a few more supporters to send the law on to the willing pen of President Barack Obama, Gore said.

“A price on carbon dioxide emissions can help us make the right decision, not only on nuclear, solar, and wind but on the gamut of energy alternatives available to us,” Gore said.

Gore’s Alliance for Climate Protection has organized groups in 22 US states with “swing senators” in the hope getting the legislation passed “before the political season gets completely wild.”

“These next few months represent the last feasible political window for quite some time to get this done,” Gore said. “So much is at stake we have to double down.”

This article is reproduced with kind permission of Agence France-Presse (AFP) For more news and articles visit the AFP website.

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